Wednesday, February 14, 2007

I Like China Growing But Will They Overtake USA

I do like China growing economically. I think one of the most wonderful things in my lifetime has been the hundreds of millions of people brought up out of dire poverty thanks to globalization. I do hope they grow more and we do more trade with them and other developing countries. I believe it is our moral imperative.

I agree with the comments at
Somewhere down there is: “US is growing at 2-4% because it's a mature economy. A developing country like China can grow at 8-10% for a period of time until it itself becomes "mature" when the growth rate has to come down. At some point in future (maybe 20 years), China's growth rate has to slow to what US's growth rate is right now. At that point, both countries will be growing at roughly the same rate because both are "mature economy". So, if China can not exceed US's GDP in 20 years (US will be at 21.67 trillions growing at 3%/yr while China will be at 12.21 trillions growing at 10%/yr for the first 10 years and then 8%/yr for the second 10 years), it will never surpass the US.”

Or see “By 2020, the nation's [China’s] GDP will reach US$4.7 trillion, or US$3,200 per capita," said Zhang, director of the centre's Foreign Economic Relations Research Department. China's overall GDP ranks sixth in the world after decades of rapid economic development, with the nation's per capita GDP exceeding US$1,200.” US GDP is currently about $13 trillion.

However, pollution and CO2 emissions (which is not a pollutant) are a concern. For example, see
“China's environmental crisis is evident everywhere. The country's air quality is among the worst in the world: According to the World Bank, 16 of the world's 20 most polluted cities are on the mainland, and acid rain affects one-third of China's agricultural land.” and "China is second biggest greenhouse gas emitter".

We should help China and India build zero-greenhouse gas emitting nuclear power plants.


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